2024

An Bord Pleanála approved a quarter of the wind energy needed in the first half of 2024 to reach climate targets

In the first half of 2024 An Bord Pleanála granted planning permission for four wind farms with a combined estimated capacity of 228 MW. Wind Energy Ireland estimates that, to achieve the 9,000 MW onshore wind energy by 2030 target in the Climate Action Plan, An Bord Pleanála would have needed to approve 860 MW since the start of the year.

The Board also rejected planning applications from eight wind farms with an estimated capacity of 459 MW, while 30 projects totalling 1,766 MW were awaiting decision at the end of Q2.

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Notes

All of these projects are either direct applications to An Bord Pleanála, classed as strategic infrastructure, or have been appealed to An Bord Pleanála following a decision by the local authority. Decisions made by County Councils are not included and nor are decisions on amendments to approved wind energy projects.

Terminology

• The term ‘Already in planning’ refers to projects which were already with An Bord Pleanála on 1 January 2024.
• The term ‘Enters Planning’ refers to projects which either applied directly to An Bord Pleanála during Q1 and Q2 or were referred there after a decision at County Council level.
• The term ‘In Planning’ refers to the total number of projects with An Bord Pleanála during Q1 and Q2.
• The term ‘Approved’ refers to projects which received planning permission from An Bord Pleanála during Q1 and Q2.
• The term ‘Rejected’ refers to projects which were refused planning permission by An Bord Pleanála during Q1 and Q2.
• The term ‘Still in planning’ refers to projects still awaiting decision from An Bord Pleanála as of 30 June 2024.

Target Methodology

The target for An Bord Pleanála to approve during Q1 and Q2 was 860 MW. The methodology for identifying the target figure is set out below.

Ireland currently has 4,780 MW of operational onshore wind energy with 568 MW in construction for a total of 5,348 MW.

We have 1,410MW of onshore wind energy projects with full planning permission, however, we estimate an attrition rate of 50 per cent, leaving us with an additional 705 MW we are confident will be built by the end of 2030.

The other projects will not be built before 2030 and may not be built at all as their permissions are overturned by Judicial Reviews, they are unable to obtain a route-to-market contract or they are located in a part of the country with a weak electricity grid making them financially unviable.

This gives us a total of 6,053 MW but, of these, 854 MW of existing projects face the possibility of being decommissioned by the end of 2030 as their planning permissions expire. This is explained in more detail in a recent Wind Energy Ireland report which is available here.

Consequently, we have 5,199 MW on track for 2030, which means we need to get planning permission for, and build, an additional 3,801 MW to reach our 9,000 MW target. We believe that projects which receive planning permission after 31 December 2026 cannot be built in time to deliver by 2030.

This means 3,801 MW of wind energy projects must clear the planning system by the end of 2030. We are, somewhat optimistically, assuming that 75 per cent of the wind energy capacity facing decommissioning can have its planning permission extended or repower.

Therefore, allowing for attrition – where projects receive planning permission but cannot be built by 2030 – we need 5,156 MW to get approval before the end of December 2026. This works out as a current target of 430 MW a quarter, or 860 MW for the first half of 2024.